MEXICO CITY – Based on data from the National Center for Preventive Programs and Disease Control (CENAPRECE) on the increase in deaths in 2020, mathematician Raúl Rojas, determined that to know the real numbers, the number of fatalities per Covid-19 reported daily by the Ministry of Health must be multiplied by 3.8.
In any country, the mortality figures announced on July 25 by the National Center for Preventive Programs and Disease Control (CENAPRECE) would shake the entire state structure. It turns out that from weeks 12 to 26 of this year (that is, up to June 30), there were 71,315 additional deaths than expected according to the previous years’ mortality rates.
Surely the overwhelming majority of these additional deaths are due to the virus directly. The rest is collateral damage from it, as people with cancer or heart disease were unable to obtain timely medical attention.
The two figures dissent.
Ultimately the cause is the same. The figures also refer to only 20 entities. Adjusting the excess deaths, taking into account that 40 million people live in the 12 states not covered by the report, we have that the excess deaths nationwide, as of June 30, would be 104,400.
On the same day, the “official” death toll for Covid was 27,769. The factor between the two numbers is 3.8.
In other words, the SSA communiqués with the numbers of deaths by the Covid have barely covered a little more than 25% of all actual cases.
This underreporting factor had already been reported, in the case of Mexico City, by the Data Workshop of Nexos magazine and by Mexicans Against Corruption and Impunity, without any response from the health authorities.
The significant absentee during this whole process is the Congress of the Union. The multiple reports of underreporting of deaths and the various articles in the press have not led congressmen and senators to take action and directly investigate the data from the SSA.
“I’ve said that in any democratic country. The state structure would crumble in the face of the scandalous handling of the figures. But in Mexico, we are surely going to see a big shrug. The deaths will continue to be counted as they have been up to now”. Said Rojas.
The “business as usual” will continue.
With the figures now reported, it turns out that Mexico is second or third in the world in terms of deaths by Covid, since Brazil surely has a similar problem of underreporting. Why won’t there be a more intense reaction to these new numbers, which quadruple the official death figures?
Because 165,000 deaths so far represent only 22% of the annual mortality in the country. If 250,000 people die in total by the end of this year, it would be only one-third of Mexico’s expected death in 2020.
It is as if a third of the people who will die in 2021 will arrive earlier this year. But concerning the number of years of life lost, what happens in Mexico is immeasurable with what happens in countries with a sound health system.
In Europe, life expectancy is about 81 years at birth. The average age of those killed by Covid is 82. There is almost no difference.
Life expectancy
In Mexico, the average age of the dead is 61 years, while life expectancy is 75 years. That’s 14 years of life lost by those people, on average. There are 2.3 million life years lost in the whole country. Therefore, this is a large-scale humanitarian crisis that continues, together with an economic situation that is condemning millions of Mexicans to extreme poverty. “Mexico is setting an example in the world.
